SnowMageddon (U.S. snow drought last winter); historical spring tornadoes; the worst Midwest summer grain drought since the dust bowl days of the 1930s; record ice melt over the Arctic; an historical drought last winter that severely damaged Brazil and Argentina‘s soybean and corn crops—are these events all precursors of more wild weather to come?While we are firm believers in global warming and climate change, sunspots as well as what is happening in the oceans will also have a profound affect on our climate. Such commodities as cocoa, soybeans, corn, wheat, coffee and natural gas will be affected by global weather events the next few months. Below we discuss some of the possible trading opportunities in commodity ETFs based on global weather influences. Ocean temperatures have a huge impact on the world’s weather. First of all (above), #1 shows that warming at the equatorial Pacific has not increased and hence the odds of El Nino forming is lower and is one reason why cocoa prices have been under pressure lately. The warming near Greenland–(#2)could result in a weaker jet stream this winter and result in a much colder October and perhaps early winter. This is because a weaker jet stream will allow for more blocking and allow the jet stream to sag farther south. This could also set the stage for some huge storms along the east coast this winter and in contrast to last winter’s snow drought. Warming off the coast of Southern Brazil–(#3) could result in a much improved soybean and corn crop for southern Brazil and Argentina this winter and have a more bearish impact on grains.
- Extreme Weather Will Continue To Wreak Havoc On Already-Devastated Crops (businessinsider.com)
- Arctic Warming is Altering Weather Patterns, Study Shows (climatecentral.org)
- Arctic Sea Ice Melt May Trigger Extreme European Winter (wired.com)
- How the Arctic death spiral fuels ‘Wicked backlash on our weather’ (energybulletin.net)